Description

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive summary (5)

Focus of the month: Long-term penetration of storage in European network, what is the limit? (6)

1. Growing need of flexibility in Europe (6)

2. The French case: a production with a nuclear baseload (8)

2.1. Overview of installed capacities in 2050 in France (8)

2.2. Load profile of France in 2050 (10)

2.3. Renewable production in France in 2050 (13)

2.4. France’s flexibility needs (14)

2.5. Flexibility levels and BESS capacities (16)

3. Germany: a future mix dominated by renewable sources (17)

3.1. Future changes in the German energy mix (17)

3.2. Load profile of Germany in 2050 (19)

3.3. Renewable production in Germany (21)

3.4. Germany’s flexibility needs (21)

4. The United Kingdom: a wind-dominated grid (23)

4.1. Overview of installed capacities in the United Kingdom in 2050 (23)

4.2. UK’s flexibility needs (25)

5. What does it mean at the European scale? (28)

5.1. Extrapolation to any country (28)

5.2. Application to the European scale (28)

5.3. Final conclusions (30)

TABLE OF FIGURES

Table 1 - Example of flexible capacity required during a cold winter day - scenario N1, reference trajectory (12)

Table 2 - Required flexible capacity in France in 2050 during a cold winter with low renewable (16)

Table 3 - Summary of required flexible capacity in France in 2050, depending on installed capacities of the six RTE

scenarios (16)

Table 4 - Required flexible capacity during a cold winter with low renewable in the United Kingdom (27)

Table 5 - Summary of the estimated need of flexible capacity (in GW) in 2050 throughout Europe (31)

Figure 1 - Installed power and Flexibility package (in GW) in 2050 for the six RTE-scenarios (9)

Figure 2 - Example of a load profile during a cold winter (in GW) in 2050 - reference trajectory, N1 scenario (11)

Figure 3 - Load profile of the highest consumption day in France in 2050 (13)

Figure 4 - Hourly profile of the 10% lowest generation from solar and wind power in 2023 in France (14)

Figure 5 – Flexibility capacities needed during a forecasted winter day of 2050 in France (15)

Figure 6 - Installed capacities in 2045 in Germany, according to grid development plan 2037-2045 (19)

Figure 7 - Load profile of a winter day in Germany, based on 2023 data (20)

Figure 8 - Forecasted long-term load profile of the German grid for a winter day (20)

Figure 9 – Hourly profile of the 10% lowest generation from solar and wind power in 2023 in Germany (21)

Figure 10 - Flexibility capacities needed during a forecasted winter day of 2050 in Germany (22)

Figure 11. Installed power and Flexibility capacity (GW) in 2050 for the 4 National Grid ESO Pathways (24)

Figure 12. Installed Flexibility in 2050 depending on ESO's Pathways (25)

Figure 13 - Hourly profile of the 10% lowest generation from solar and wind power in 2023 in the UK (26)

Figure 14. Load (GW) of baseload capacity and low renewable production, compared to the highest UK national

demand (26)

Figure 15 – Forecasted lad profile of a cold winter day in Europe in 2050 (29)

Figure 16 – Forecasted energy generation and compared to the highest European demand in 2050 (30)