Finland price forecast S1 2025 updated

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July 1, 2025

We have released the latest update to our price forecast for Finland – one of the most dynamic and rapidly evolving energy markets in Europe.

With multiple accessible revenue streams and a robust pipeline of projects, Finland is experiencing a notable acceleration in development. Hundreds of megawatts of new capacity are expected to be commissioned in 2025–2026, significantly impacting reservation prices in the near term.

Short overview

Revenue stack

2027-2030: After 2026, all primary reserve markets are expected to be saturated, shifting BESS operations from FCR-N towards FCR-D, aFRR and mFRR procurement. A 2-hour system generates one third of its revenues on capacity markets in its first years of operation.

2031-2041: As aFRR and mFRR capacity markets saturate, trading (on day-ahead, intraday and mFRR energy mainly for charging) represents a larger share of the revenue stack. Intraday’s share diminishes but still represent a great source of revenues.

A 2-hour battery relies mostly on energy trading for its revenues.

Cost Analysis

Battery CAPEX represents a significant amount (66%) of the total cost of the project.

A 2-hour battery generates two thirds of its discounted revenues through energy trading (day-ahead, intraday and mFRR energy), and the rest distributed between the primary, secondary and tertiary reserve capacity markets.

In the Central scenario, the 2-hour battery reaches profitability.

Changes from S2 2024 to S1 2025 prices and revenue stack

The numerous announced and commissioned projects in Finland have impacted the BESS development scenario, leading to an addition of 750 MW of battery installation for 2026.
The updated BESS development scenario leads to a high BESS penetration on all capacity reservation markets, including aFRR and mFRR. In consequence, for most markets, reservation prices drop in 2026. This version of the price forecast takes a more conservative approach on long term ancillary services prices, better reflecting the potential risk of low prices in the long term.
With lower capacity markets prices, the battery generates most of its revenues on Day- ahead and Intraday markets. Intraday prices modeling now accounts for both BESS penetration and exchanged volume increase on top of Day-ahead volatility.
The commissioning date for BESS has been updated to 1 January 2027, and the duration of the project has increased from 15 to 18 years, aligned with recent technology development.
In this edition, Clean Horizon has updated renewable capacity installation scenarios, accounting for the latest Fingrid’s reports. Solar capacity has been revised upwards, as has wind capacity. Demand has been revised downwards to align with the latest trends.

For access to the full report and to stay informed on the latest market developments, please contact us directly.

Finland. Price Forecast_S1_2025

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