The new forecasts for the second half of 2025 for the Baltics are now available. A new semester brings an updated outlook, and we are pleased to share our most up-to-date view of the storage markets in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, together with our long-term price projections.

The region is transforming rapidly. Key forces reshaping the landscape include:

• A rapid rise in renewables: Installed capacity has increased by more than 70% in just four years. Solar and wind now represent over half of total capacity (8 GW), steadily reducing the region’s historical deficit.
• Greater price volatility: Unpredictable RES growth and interconnection constraints are driving higher price volatility and the emergence of a “duck-shaped price curve,” highlighting significant commercial potential for electricity storage.
• High-cost balancing market: Since going live in early 2025, the Baltic balancing market has accumulated more than 260 M€ in costs for TSOs within only eight months.
• Market granularity transition: The introduction of 15-minute trading periods on 1 October 2025 further rewards system flexibility and increases the value of accurate forecasting.

This edition also features several methodological improvements:

• Extended historical price data for model training, incorporating additional real market observations since the market opening in early 2025.
• A refined intraday methodology that better captures ID opportunities in relation to BESS duration.
• More precise flexibility projections that reflect future net flexibility needs and the economic rationale for deploying storage assets.
• Full integration of asymmetrical aFRR/mFRR participation within COSMOS.
• Enhanced modelling of BESS cycling.

If you are interested in detailed Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian forecasts, or in developing bankable business models for your assets, we invite you to get in touch to explore tailored insights and strategic opportunities across the Baltic markets.

Learn more about our solutions for the European BESS market.