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Spanish price forecast update: S1 2025 Insights for BESS
Calendar May 23, 2025

Clean Horizon’s latest Spanish price forecast report for Semester 1, 2025, released in March, delivers essential updates reflecting the evolving energy market landscape and its implications for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) in Spain.

๐—•๐—˜๐—ฆ๐—ฆ ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ

  • Thanks to advances in technology, BESS systems now offer longer operational lifetimes – meaning more time to generate revenues.
  • CAPEX costs have also dropped significantly from late 2024 to early 2025, improving overall project profitability.

๐—ฆ๐Ÿฎ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฐ – ๐—ฆ๐Ÿญ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ: ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜โ€™๐˜€ ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐˜€ & ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐˜€?

๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—ป-๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ฒ
Weโ€™ve internalised the Spanish price forecasting exercise for sharper insights and better agility.

๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป
The cannibalisation of the revenues by the BESS systems has now been considered on the mFRR energy activation markets based on market activation volumes.

๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐˜€

  • Spain will move forward with T-5 and T-1 auctions.
  • T-5 contracts may cover up to 50% of an assetโ€™s lifetime.
  • Key details (like de-rating factors, stress hours) remain unclear, but our models account for reasonable assumptions.

๐—œ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜† (๐—œ๐——) ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜ ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ
With more renewables and tighter balancing needs, we expect ID liquidity and spreads to grow – now reflected in revenue stacks.

๐—จ๐—ฝ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฑ ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐˜€
Forecasts reflect the 2025 grid fee values now in force.

๐—–๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—™๐—ฅ๐—ฅ ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐˜† ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜€๐˜‚๐—บ๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป
Weโ€™ve factored in a 50% activation chance to remain aligned with current market realities.

๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ท๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜ ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜€
Business model duration is now extended to 18 years, aligning with updated degradation curves for 1.5 cycles/day.

๐—Ÿ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜ ๐—•๐—˜๐—ฆ๐—ฆ ๐—–๐—”๐—ฃ๐—˜๐—ซ ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ
Our models use Q1 2025 CAPEX data for a more accurate financial outlook.

Contact us to receive the full report.