The latest Clean Horizon Portuguese price forecasts (S1 2025) have been available since March 2025!

Recent advancements in battery energy storage system (BESS) technologies have extended system lifespans, allowing for longer revenue-generating periods. In addition, a decline in capital expenditure (CAPEX) between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 has improved the profitability outlook for BESS assets.

Key changes from S2 2024 to S1 2025:

𝗔𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗙𝗥𝗥 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝟭 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱
The cannibalisation of revenues by BESS systems has now been considered in the mFRR energy activation market, based on market activation volumes.

𝗜𝗗 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

• It has been considered that, with the increasing penetration of renewables in the country and the need to readjust positions closer to real time, the ID market will become more liquid in the future and spreads will also become more attractive
• The ID revenue has been forecasted and added to the revenue stacks.

𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝗳𝗲𝗲𝘀 𝘂𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲𝘀
The grid fees have been updated to reflect the latest values in force for 2025.

𝗮𝗙𝗥𝗥 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁
A conservative assumption has been added for the aFRR energy market, assuming a 50% chance of activation.

𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗶𝘅 𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁𝘀

• The increase in load has been revised from 1.5% per year to 2% per year (on average)
• The PV development in the short term has been revised to consider slower deployment
• Wind deployment has been reduced compared to the previous report
• Flexibility assumptions have been reviewed based on announced projects and tenders
• Fuel price assumptions have been updated.

𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝟭𝟴 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀
Most of the guaranteed degradation curves for 1.5 cycles/day have an 18-year duration. Thus, the lifetime of the business model has been updated accordingly.

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗕𝗘𝗦𝗦 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫
The latest BESS CAPEX figures have been used in the business models.

Learn more here. Price Forecast S1 2025 Portugal. Clean Horizon

For access to the full report or additional details on how these forecasts apply to ongoing or upcoming projects, contact the Clean Horizon team.

Further insights on energy storage revenues and market dynamics in Portugal will be shared in upcoming updates.