The France S2 2025 price forecast has now been published. This release introduces important updates to both market assumptions and modeling methodologies, providing an enhanced outlook for stakeholders.

Key Updates in Assumptions

To begin with, the forecast incorporates significant revisions in the energy mix, particularly regarding solar and wind projections. These changes are closely aligned with the evolving political context in France. In addition, new derating factors for BESS have been introduced under the reformed capacity mechanism market.

Methodological Enhancements

Furthermore, the forecasting methodology has undergone a substantial overhaul:

• It now includes the impact of renewable assets on the aFRR DOWN capacity auction, which is expected to exert downward pressure on long-term prices.
• The Intraday revenue model has also been upgraded to reflect higher renewable penetration. This refinement captures both the revenue potential of 3–4h BESS and the cannibalisation effect arising from increased BESS deployment.

Advancements in the COSMOS Simulation Tool

In parallel, the COSMOS simulation tool has been significantly enhanced. The upgrades now allow for asymmetrical prequalification in aFRR, as well as more advanced BESS cycling strategies. As a result, the forecasts deliver more precise and bankable revenue projections for market participants.

For a concise overview, please refer to the attached slides, which summarise the revised methodology, the COSMOS tool improvements, and the revenue stack for a central scenario 2-hour BESS.

 For access to detailed price forecasts or to explore the development of bankable business models, contact us to discuss tailored insights and strategic opportunities.